Numero Uno?

Numero Uno?: Will this come to pass?

… “Rise of the Guardians,” the kids’ holiday film that is off to such a bad start … has a good shot at winding up No. 1 at the weekend box office. And that’s in its third week.

The box office has a severe case of pre-“Hobbit”-itis. Warner Bros. will roll out the first installment of Peter Jackson’s latest Middle Earth epic on December 14 and rival studios have pretty much run for cover. …

The top spot looks to be a toss-up between “Guardians” and Sony’s “Skyfall” and DreamWorks and Disney’s “Lincoln,” both of which are in their fifth week of release. …

Recently, the thought has been that Christmas themed movies under-perform at the box office.

But Christmas movies being weaklings at the box office is an old conceit, dating back (at least) to It’s a Wonderful Life. The reality is, Christmas Films under-perform (Arthur Christmas, anyone?) except when they don’t.

[Polar Express] opened at #2 [in November, 2004], being outgrossed 2-to-1 by Disney/Pixar’s The Incredibles, and brought in $23,323,463 from approximately 7,000 screens at 3,650 theaters in its opening weekend. … Initially, the movie seemed to be headed towards becoming a box office failure after its first week, … [However] The Polar Express ended up grossing nearly $160 million in the United States alone. 25% of the world gross came from just 82 IMAX 3D theaters, shocking many nonbelievers and film critics. …

For our own selfish reasons, we would dearly like Guardians to pick itself up and climb to the top of the movie rankings. Whether that happens or not depends on how many people want to see Guardians’ Team of Rivals*.

We’ll find out in a few days.

* Lincoln, Skyfall, Twilight Umpty-ump.

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